Handicapping
Let's get right to the bone of contention when it comes to handicapping sporting events.
You can't do it. It is almost impossible to handicap. Sure, you can take all the information available on computers, in the papers, on TV, stick them all into a stew, mix it up and you're gonna lose a ton of games at the buzzer.
The things you can't figure on are the things that usually cause you to win or lose a game. Very rarely will you be able to use all of the info available to make your choice, then take that info and sit back to a coasting win.
Sometimes it'll happen, but not enough to be a strong point in your trying to pick daily winners. Handicapping is just fantastically hard.
Let's say in football the Chicago Bears are playing the Green Bay Packers at home, in minus 9 degree weather, with a wind blowing at 30 MPH.
The over and under is 31 and you bet the under in a teaser, bringing the total to under 37.
You did all your proper handicapping, checking the weather, wind, past performances, etc. As a bonus, each team was using a second team quarterback. You know darn well it is a lock under. it'll probably end up 0 0.
Chicago kicks off and the Packers run it back 87 yards for a TD and it's 7 0.
Green Bay kicks off and Chicago fumbles the run back. The Packers recover and in 4 plays pops across another TD. Now it's 14 0.
Chicago changes its tactics and starts to pass on every down. You look back over your figures and see that the Bears have attempted 13 passes in each of the last 3 games. So you figured it would be strictly a round game, with the clock being eaten away, especially in this weather.
While you're looking at the notes, Green Bay intercepts a pass and BINGO!, it's 21 0. You break your ankle kicking in the TV.
Naturally, this is not an everyday happening, but sifting through tons of statistics can be frustrating when a certain happening causes the teams to adopt different means to an end than what they had been doing.
Most of you are loaded down with statistical information and some of it is usable. But my approaches will make you shake your head in both disbelief and opposition to the Theory.
All I'm asking is that you think about it. just look it some of the factors I use to make my selections and lo my betting. I do not call myself a handicapper because there are too many things that enter into my figuring that goes away from the time honored theories of other selectors.
Do you know why I really changed my way of thinking???
Because I was getting my head handed to me. I was doing all the figuring and philosophical computing of intangible possibilities and all the other high browed approaches.
And I kept losing. I am not a handicapper because I do not believe picking a winner is all based on past performance statistics.
You can't do it. It is almost impossible to handicap. Sure, you can take all the information available on computers, in the papers, on TV, stick them all into a stew, mix it up and you're gonna lose a ton of games at the buzzer.
The things you can't figure on are the things that usually cause you to win or lose a game. Very rarely will you be able to use all of the info available to make your choice, then take that info and sit back to a coasting win.
Sometimes it'll happen, but not enough to be a strong point in your trying to pick daily winners. Handicapping is just fantastically hard.
Let's say in football the Chicago Bears are playing the Green Bay Packers at home, in minus 9 degree weather, with a wind blowing at 30 MPH.
The over and under is 31 and you bet the under in a teaser, bringing the total to under 37.
You did all your proper handicapping, checking the weather, wind, past performances, etc. As a bonus, each team was using a second team quarterback. You know darn well it is a lock under. it'll probably end up 0 0.
Chicago kicks off and the Packers run it back 87 yards for a TD and it's 7 0.
Green Bay kicks off and Chicago fumbles the run back. The Packers recover and in 4 plays pops across another TD. Now it's 14 0.
Chicago changes its tactics and starts to pass on every down. You look back over your figures and see that the Bears have attempted 13 passes in each of the last 3 games. So you figured it would be strictly a round game, with the clock being eaten away, especially in this weather.
While you're looking at the notes, Green Bay intercepts a pass and BINGO!, it's 21 0. You break your ankle kicking in the TV.
Naturally, this is not an everyday happening, but sifting through tons of statistics can be frustrating when a certain happening causes the teams to adopt different means to an end than what they had been doing.
Most of you are loaded down with statistical information and some of it is usable. But my approaches will make you shake your head in both disbelief and opposition to the Theory.
All I'm asking is that you think about it. just look it some of the factors I use to make my selections and lo my betting. I do not call myself a handicapper because there are too many things that enter into my figuring that goes away from the time honored theories of other selectors.
Do you know why I really changed my way of thinking???
Because I was getting my head handed to me. I was doing all the figuring and philosophical computing of intangible possibilities and all the other high browed approaches.
And I kept losing. I am not a handicapper because I do not believe picking a winner is all based on past performance statistics.
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